Bairun Co. (002568) first quarter report performance preview comment： strong sales during the Spring Festival and new micro 醺 steadily advance
Bairun Co. (002568) first quarter report performance preview comment: strong sales during the Spring Festival and new micro 醺 steadily advance
Event description The company’s first quarter performance forecast for the year of 19 was released. Net profit is expected to increase by 50% -70% annually. Core point of view.There are several main reasons: 1) The Spring Festival is the peak season for pre-adjusted cocktail sales. Due to lack of pre-judgment experience and SKUs in the past few years, there are often shortages in the peak season, and the replenishment of the Spring Festival this time is often timely;The dealer’s confidence is also recovering, from passive demand to active demand; 3) New Weihao products began to be launched in 18Q2, the contribution rate of the first quarter increased; 4) Online sales through marketing strategies are more flexible and in line with youthThe consumption habits of consumer groups have grown rapidly in the past two years.According to Taobao data, in the first quarter of this year, RIO pre-adjusted cocktails on Taobao platform alone exceeded 20 million yuan, an increase of 47% per year. 2. In the product conversion period of 18 years, the growth rate of revenue was lower than the growth rate of sales volume. In 19 years, it continued to push forward the new Weibo: According to the gradual performance report, the company’s revenue in 2018 increased by 4.9%, lower than the 17-year revenue growth rate. First of all, the new Weihao products have just been launched. The company’s focus has gradually shifted from high-priced colorful bottles to low-priced canned new Weihao products.The ex-factory price of a single tin of canned cans is high, but the number of milliliters is high, resulting in an overall revenue growth rate lower than the sales growth rate.In fact, consumers’ intake of pre-regulated cocktails is rising, and their consumption habits are gradually being cultivated.At present, the distribution rate of the new Weihao products is far from the level of colorful bottles. The main reason is that the company promotes new products more pragmatically than before, and adopts a one-by-one breakout strategy, so the space for subsequent 南京夜网 penetration increases.The company continued to innovate and launch new single products and marketing activities in the future to enhance brand vitality and meet consumer demand. 3. Continue to explore the marketing model of preset cocktails and follow the right path: Since 2014, the company has successfully created a category of preset cocktails and won the first place in the market, but since the preset cocktail is a brand new category, Both traditional wine and soft drinks, so the company has taken too many detours in its marketing model. Especially when introducing external talent, it is inevitable to encounter problems.Therefore, the company began to return to its origins in the creation of the sales team, promote talents from the internal team, and reuse those teams who witnessed the preset cocktail industry from 杭州桑拿 scratch and fully recognized the company culture.We think the company is on the right path and needs more patience to grow the pre-mix cocktail category. 4. Profit forecast and grade: We expect the company’s EPS for 2018-2020 to be 0 respectively.24 yuan, 0.48 yuan and 0.60 yuan, maintain the “recommended” level. 5. Risk warning: New product promotion is not up to expectations; industry demand is shrinking; food safety incidents.